By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Vodacom Group is a major telecommunications company in Africa that offers a wide range of services and deals, including cell phone contracts, prepaid options, mobile and home internet, and fibre. Vodacom has a strong customer base spanning across South Africa, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Lesotho, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Kenya (via Safaricom), and Egypt (via Vodafone Egypt).
The business is the market leader in mobile telecommunications in South Africa and Kenya, and the rest of its international footprint still holds potential from a mobile penetration perspective. The entry into Ethiopia is particularly exciting and recent corporate activity (Egypt) has boosted the longer-term growth outlook for the business.
Technically, a period of low volatility signals market stability and underlying accumulation, which can precede an upside breakout. Periods of low volatility often reflects market stability and lower selling pressure. Investors may be accumulating positions quietly before driving the next leg higher.
Seasonal strength from October to December supports a bullish case for the share (see the insert on the main chart). This pattern highlights that Vodacom delivers strong average returns from October through December. The strong turnaround between September's weakness and October to December's strength suggests that downside pressure may be exhausted.
Downside momentum according to the MACD histogram on the weekly time interval is a concern, but the recent sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator supports a bullish case for the share.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R138.00.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | VOD SJ |
| Industry | Telecommunication services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 274.3 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 22.80% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 33.64% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 132.03 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 147.44 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 94.14 |
| Financial Year End | March |
| The price remains above its 200-day and 200-week SMAs of R126.34. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | Y27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (GBP) | 8.45 | 10.70 | 12.44 | 13.50 |
| Growth (%) | 26.72 | 16.19 | 8.53 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 6.20 | 7.62 | 9.04 | 10.02 |
| Growth (%) | 22.87 | 18.71 | 10.83 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 11.41 | 10.18 | 9.78 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 5.77 | 6.85 | 7.59 | |
| The group is set to see strong double-digit earnings growth in the medium term. The dividend yield is attractive. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long term fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | SGRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CFR - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SBK - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 13.22 | 2 980.00 | 233.57 |
| Current Price | 14.80 | 3 241.21 | 236.40 |
| Movement | +12.0% | +8.8% | +1.2% |
| Comment |
A price trading at one of the highest price bins out of the price distribution analysis remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R16.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R13.20. |
The formation of wave one of the Elliott wave theory remains of interest. Testing its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R3 517.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R3 027.00. |
A price holding above key support remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. The start of downside momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R261.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R226.00. |
| Time to exit | 17 November 2025 | 28 April 2026 | 19 January 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | DCP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ANH - Buy (Continue to hold) |
TBS - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 32.60 | 1 031.56 | 304.50 |
| Current Price | 32.92 | 1 036.80 | 305.50 |
| Movement | +1.0 | +0.5% | +0.3% |
| Comment |
The price is developing a symmetrical triangle pattern, which remains of interest. Testing its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R37.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R31.25. |
A price firmly within the upward-sloping linear regression channel remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R1 255.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R947.00. |
A strong price aligned with a rising Volume Price Trend (VPT), backed by sustained accumulation and buying interest, keeps the potential for further upside after consolidation in focus. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R345.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R289.00. |
| Time to exit | 29 October 2025 | 17 February 2026 | 27 October 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | SHP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
INL - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 278.33 | 134.01 |
| Current Price | 276.00 | 128.94 |
| Movement | -0.8% | -3.8% |
| Comment |
The price development in a well-established inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R312.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R265.00. |
An upward-tilted broadening top remains of interest, with the price above its 200-day SMA. The start of downside momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R150.75 with a stop-loss at R127.30. |
| Time to exit | 9 December 2025 | 31 December 2025 |
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