By Peet Serfontein & Pritu Makan
Tiger Brands is a branded fast-moving consumer packaged goods company that operates mainly in South Africa and selected emerging markets. The core business is the manufacturing, marketing and distribution of everyday branded food and beverages. Many brands under its umbrella, including All Gold, Koo, Albany and Tastic enjoy market leader status in South Africa.
Of late, Tiger Brands has experienced improved momentum in profitability. This has been a function of a better cost experience as it has worked on rationalising its product set and cleaned up its portfolio by disposing of non-core and often low-margin businesses.
Technically, the alignment of strong price action with a rising Volume Price Trend (VPT) - supported by sustained accumulation and healthy buying interest - makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see insert on the main chart). While a brief pullback has occurred from recent highs, the price remains well above prior breakout levels, suggesting that the advance is consolidating rather than reversing.
Furthermore, the price is holding firm at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 30 300, with buyers consistently defending this area as a key support zone.
The price remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of ~R283.09, which is generally regarded as a sign of underlying bullish support.
Fading downside momentum has added to our confluence, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, which reached its maximum negative reading and has started to move back toward zero, signalling that selling pressure is easing.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | TBS |
| Industry | Food, Beverage & Tobacco |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 53.52 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 48.35% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 13.83% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 304.50 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 334.94 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 205.97 |
| Financial Year End | September |
| The share has made good progress year-to-date, and technical indicators are supportive of renewed upside. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 17.85 | 19.79 | 20.70 | 23.46 |
| Growth (%) | 10.87 | 4.55 | 13.34 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 10.34 | 15.60 | 15.19 | 15.62 |
| Growth (%) | 50.83 | -2.60 | 2.80 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 15.38 | 14.71 | 12.98 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 5.12 | 4.99 | 5.13 | |
| Earnings growth is expected to be solid over the forecast horizon. The dividend yield is also attractive. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long-term Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | GRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
RDF - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VAL - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 1322 | 469 | 85000 |
| Current Price | 1439 | 484 | 86946 |
| Movement | +8.9% | +3.2% | +2.3% |
| Comment | The share is trading at one of the highest price bins out of the price distribution analysis, which remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade. Our profit target remains at R16.00 with a stop-loss at R12.80. | The price is in a developing triangle pattern. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade. Our profit target remains at R5.30 with a stop-loss at R4.60. | The price is developing a rounding top pattern. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target remains at R1 063 with a stop-loss at R762. |
| Time to exit | 17 November 2025 | 1 September 2025 | 10 September 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | BID - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SBK - Buy (Continue to hold) |
STXFIN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 45843 | 23357 | 2175 |
| Current Price | 45662 | 23082 | 2114 |
| Movement | -0.4% | -1.2% | -2.8% |
| Comment | The combination of a sustained bounce off the lower one standard deviation band, ongoing support from the broader upward trend, and signs of renewed buying interest remain of interest. Crossed above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum supports the trade. Our profit target remains at R528 with a stop-loss at R431. | The price is holding above key support. Testing its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade. We maintain our profit target at R261 with a stop-loss at R223. | The price remains above major support. Downside momentum is a concern to the trade strategy. We maintain our profit target at R25.00 with a stop-loss at R20.50. |
| Time to exit | 30 August 2025 | 19 January 2026 | 15 September 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | COH - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BVT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
TFG - Stop loss (Close the position) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 882 | 23973 | 13069 |
| Current Price | 855 | 23075 | 11959 |
| Movement | -3.1% | -3.7% | -8.5% |
| Comment | The price is at a key distribution level. Remains below its 200-day SMA, marking this as a counter-trend setup. Muted upside momentum supports the trade. We maintain our profit target at R10.50 with a stop-loss at R8.20. | The price is in the lower range of an inclining linear regression channel pattern. Remains below its 200-day SMA, marking this as a counter-trend setup. Upside momentum halted, which is a concern. We maintain our profit target at R274 with a stop-loss at R226. | The stock triggered an aggressive price action-based stop-loss, leading to the closure of our position. |
| Time to exit | 22 August 2025. | 1 September 2025 |
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